What is Wagner PMC doing in Africa, and what is their significance for Ukraine?

The Wagner Private Military Company is a name that is probably already known to the vast majority of Ukrainians. "Meat" waves, war crimes, militants with infectious diseases — this glory came to the PMC after the start of the full-scale invasion. But the company's activities are not limited to the last year.

Sometimes in the news, you can see reports that a Wagner PMC base has been attacked in one African country or another. What are Wagner's troops doing in Africa in the first place?

The answer to this question often consists of a long list of countries scattered across the African continent. Just the names of these countries say little to the reader. Therefore, Svidomi decided to tell in detail about the activities of Wagner militants in Africa.

We should start with a basic premise: although Wagner Group is a private company, it promotes Moscow's foreign policy interests. Wagner is not a pioneer in this area. According to Candace Rondeaux, Professor of Practice at the Center on the Future of War at Arizona State University, the Russian strategy of using proxy groups did not begin with Wagner. Putin's actions are "shaped and enabled by the historical dynamics that gave rise to Russian PMCs," Rondeaux writes. This dynamic consists of several elements:

1) In the early nineties, the collapse of the Soviet empire pushed thousands of intelligence and security officers into the market economy;

2) Common experiences and revanchist sentiments united them into groups;

3) In the mid-nineties, these groups became the first private security companies to protect the infrastructure of private oil and gas companies;

4) After Putin came to power, the extractive companies expanded abroad in parallel with the Kremlin's use of the Soviet legacy to re-establish its presence in the Middle East and Africa;

5) The financial crisis of 2008, falling raw material prices, and democratic revolutions in Egypt, Syria, and Libya hit Putin's regime;

6) Russian PMCs begin to arrive in the Middle East to protect infrastructure, supply weapons to Moscow-backed armed groups, and train them.

The Russian PMCs that existed at that time were not adapted for offensive operations. An attempt to use them in 2013 during the war in Syria was unsuccessful. It was in these circumstances that Dmitry Utkin, together with Yevgeny Prigozhin, founded a private military company in the summer of 2014. The PMC was named after Utkin's call sign, Wagner. He has since stopped using the call sign, but the word has spread across the African continent under the patronage of Russian military intelligence.

However, Wagner Group usually operates as a team with Prigozhin's other businesses. The PMC is financed and supported through a number of companies: M-Invest, Broker Expert, Ferrum Mining, and Lobaye Invest. All the legal entities are interconnected and are used to extract minerals in African countries and supply goods and services required by Wagner.

For example, Broker Expert is responsible for purchasing Chinese helmets for Wagner troops fighting in Ukraine and Chinese equipment for Wagner contractors logging in the Central African Republic.

It also has companies designed for non-military interference in the politics of other countries. First of all, these are the Internet Research Agency and the Association for Free Research and International Cooperation. The former is well known for using bots on social media to influence public opinion in the US and Ukraine.

The agency did not operate directly in Africa, but it left a trace — a former employee of the agency, Mikhail Potepkin, headed one of Prigozhin's gold mining companies in Sudan. The disinformation work was carried out by the Association for Free Research and International Cooperation with the telling acronym AFRIC. The organisation was established in 2018 to influence public opinion in African countries. To do this, they use fake experts, election observers, publications, and Facebook ads.

However, Wagner PMC is a key element in Prigozhin's business empire, and without it, operations in Africa would not have been possible. So where exactly did they operate?

PMC arrival year: 2019

Political circumstances of arrival: Since 2011, the country has been in an almost continuous civil war. This war can be divided into two stages. The first began in 2011 and lasted until 2014. During this phase, dictator Muammar Gaddafi lost power, but the armed confrontation between disparate non-state military groups did not end there. In 2014, this confrontation reached a point of no return due to the formation of two separate political centres that claimed full power in the country. In this regard, the second stage can be distinguished. Russian mercenaries had been involved in this stage of the war even before the appearance of the Wagner troops.

Tarek Megerisi, a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, told Svidomi.

The Wagner PMC also arrived in Libya during the second phase. At that time, the fight was between two political organisations: the Government of National Accord and the House of Representatives. Islamic State jihadists also took part in the war. The army of the House of Representatives was led by Khalifa Haftar, a graduate of the Frunze Military Academy in Moscow. It was he who received support from the Russian Federation and actually became a self-sufficient political figure.

This assistance was both political and military, explains Megerisi. For example, the Russians printed a separate currency for his failed new state and invited him aboard the aircraft carrier Admiral Kuznetsov to add political weight to him. At the same time, the Wagner Group arrived in Libya to strengthen Haftar.

Activities: The Wagner mercenaries initially trained Haftar's military, helped with the purchase of weapons, and guarded key infrastructure.

says Meherisi. They failed to achieve their goal, but the Wagner soldiers captured major oil fields and bases and took control of Haftar's army, making the General dependent on them.

They also started smuggling drugs from Syria and oil products to Syria. This activity brought them money. At the same time, the United States claimed that the United Arab Emirates was behind the financing of PMCs in Libya. US military intelligence did not explain what data this assessment was based on. At the same time, it is not surprising — the UAE supported Haftar to pit him against Islamist groups.

Current situation: due to the activities of the Wagner Group, Russia has become one of the factors in Libya that hinder democratic transformation in the country.

explains Megerisi. However, Wagner crimes in Libya, such as the desecration of mosques and mining of residential buildings, which kills children, have turned the locals against Russians. So now Russia cannot play a major political role in the country.

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine did not affect the situation for PMCs in Libya. At the same time, Wagner bases have been turned into logistical hubs for operations on the rest of the African continent, particularly in Sudan.

PMC arrival year: 2017

Political circumstances of arrival: Sudan is a country that has been experiencing almost continuous armed conflict for 50 years. Although the main source of the conflict was the unfair distribution of resources between the Arab centre and the non-Arab periphery, it eventually turned into a struggle between the authoritarian regime and its opponents.

Since the 1990s, the country was led by dictator Omar al-Bashir. During his rule, the south gained independence and became a separate internationally recognised state South Sudan. Meanwhile, the war in the west of the country, in the Darfur region (translated as the land of the ethnic non-Arab Fur group), continued. Al-Bashir's regime supported the Janjaweed. These groups were mostly composed of local nomadic Arabs, but anyone of non-Fur origin could join. The only requirement was a willingness to commit violence, including against civilians. In 2013, the state legalised the Janjaweed armed groups by creating the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).

The al-Bashir regime was looking for allies who would be willing to cooperate with authoritarian countries. During the Cold War, Soviet weapons often found their way to Sudan, so al-Bashir's main partners were Russia, China, Belarus, and Ukraine under President Yanukovych.

In the autumn of 2017, the Sudanese dictator visited Russia. The meeting resulted in the signing of agreements on defence assistance and the granting of concessions to Russian companies for the extraction of Sudanese resources. Prigozhin's M-Invest also benefited from the agreement, as it received the rights to mine gold in the Central African Republic. After that, Wagner troops began to arrive in the country. There were so many of them that M-Invest signed a contract with the Russian Ministry of Defence for transport services worth 56 million rubles.

Sudan has access to the Red Sea, which connects the Mediterranean area with the Indian Ocean. This has made the country a key element in the spread of Russian influence to southern Africa.

Activities: Since 2017, Prigozhin's structures have been supplying Sudan with weapons, advising al-Bashir on how not to lose power, and conducting disinformation campaigns. Trainings were an important part of the PMC's activities in Sudan. This applied to both the army and the RSF. However, it was the second group that became the main ally of the Wagner mercenaries.

This is not surprising — the Wagner PMC and the RSF have a lot in common. Both armed groups exist alongside the army. Their leaders have a shady past. Prigozhin spent 10 years in prison for theft and robbery. There is little information about the life of his Sudanese counterpart, Mohamed Dagalo, before the war in Darfur. During the war, Dagalo became one of the leaders of the Janjaweed and was involved in a number of war crimes.

Current situation: Russian support did not save al-Bashir. In 2019, a wave of protests took place in the country, which the Sudanese military took advantage of. Together with the RSF, they seized power. Under pressure from civilians and foreign countries, they agreed to share power with a coalition of civil and political organisations. This is how the Transitional Sovereignty Council was created. However, in 2021, another coup took place, allowing the military to strengthen its control over the Council. Nevertheless, elections were scheduled for the summer of 2023, in which members of the Transitional Sovereignty Council were not eligible to participate. On the eve of the elections, in April, an armed conflict broke out between the army and the RSF, caused by Dagalo's desire to seize power completely.

Wagner supports the RSF in the conflict. Dagalo would never have been able to get into the country's leadership in a democratic way: he is of unprivileged background, has no education, and has the blood of civilians on his hands. If you bring such a person to power, they will be extremely grateful, and Prigozhin is aware of this. However, it seems that the PMC is not much help to the Rapid Support Forces. Even at the beginning of the conflict, CNN and the All Eyes on Wagner research group claimed that Wagner had provided the RSF with air defence equipment. On May 25, the US Treasury Department confirmed this. However, there is no other information about Wagner's involvement on Dagalo's side.

PMC arrival year: 2022

Political circumstances of arrival: Mali has been experiencing armed confrontation since 2012, first between the state and Tuareg groups seeking to establish their own state in northern Mali. Later, they entered into compromise negotiations with the state, but the jihadists grew stronger, and the conflict transformed into a struggle between the state and political Islam. Since then, three coups d'état have taken place.

The first occurred in 2012, which brought the military to power. However, under sanctions and diplomatic pressure, they conceded, and elections were held in the country. The winner was Ibrahim Keïta, a graduate of the University of Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne who worked in the non-governmental sector before entering politics. During his presidency, he cooperated with international organisations and attempted to fight corruption without success. Meanwhile, the armed conflict continued, with France and later the EU intervening militarily to stop the Islamists. However, they were not completely defeated.

In 2020, the Malian army staged a second coup d'état. France did not like the prospect of supporting the dictatorship, but the military operation against the jihadists continued. The junta, just like the democratic government before, fails to win the final victory in the confrontation with the jihadists. Prigozhin's structures launched pro-Russian information campaigns.

In 2021, another coup took place. This time, power was concentrated by Colonel Assimi Goïta, a professional military officer. He had previously been trained under US counter-terrorism programmes, and after coming to power, he tried to maintain a balanced policy. That has been difficult, as Western countries are generally reluctant to cooperate with military juntas. At the same time, according to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, the United States remained the largest donor to Mali in 2022. But it is clear that military cooperation, which Mali needs most, was out of the question.

Meanwhile, Russian propaganda was intensifying, and posters depicting Goïta with Putin in military gear and with weapons appeared. In early 2022, Wagner mercenaries arrive in Mali. Within a year, France winds down the operation.

Activities: Now, the Wagner militants, not the French military, are helping the Malian army fight the jihadists. The methods are well-known – during its stay in Mali, the PMC has compiled a long list of crimes. The most notorious is the attack on the village of Moura in March 2022, when Russian and Malian troops captured it and shot about 300-500 men. Of course, they tried to explain the actions by saying that the victims were terrorists, but witnesses said they were chosen randomly.

Financing is another problem for the PMC in Mali. Usually, this happens through the transfer of rights to a particular mineral mine to Russian companies. However, in Mali, they are not profitable enough. At the end of 2022, Mali mistakenly published a document on the expenditures of the local intelligence service. According to the document, expenditures were expected to reach €21 million in early 2022. However, by the end of the first half of the year, this estimate had risen to 135 million. This increase can be explained by the fact that the budget of the intelligence service includes the Wagner Group costs.

Current situation: Despite the rumours of Wagner troops being sent from Mali to Ukraine, the PMC has not disappeared. According to the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), about 50 civilians were killed by PMCs in 2023. Some of them were accused by the Wagner mercenaries of having links to jihadists, others were robbed and killed. Several more people were killed when a militant accidentally detonated a grenade in a bar.

Now, the PMC is trying to use the country as a logistics centre: according to the State Department, the Russians tried to buy weapons allegedly for use in Mali, but the items were supposed to go to Ukraine.

PMC arrival year: There is no accurate data on the Wagner Group's presence in Nigeria, but the country could be the next target for expansion.

Political circumstances of possible arrival: It is the largest African country by population and ranked sixth in the Global Terrorism Threat Index: the Islamic State's West Africa Province is trying to consolidate all Islamist armed groups in Nigeria and the neighbouring countries.

In 2023, the country held presidential elections, with the winner, Bola Tinubu, gaining only 36% of the vote. The other two candidates, Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, received 29% and 25% respectively. According to experts at the Royal Institute of International Affairs, this is evidence of the political division of society.

Tinubu represents the All Progressives Congress party. The same applies to his predecessor, Muhammadu Buhari, who visited Russia, where he signed a military cooperation agreement and blamed Ukraine. Buhari claimed that a full-scale invasion places weapons in the hands of African terrorists. There is no evidence of this.

On the eve of the presidential election, the Nigerian media outlet Daily Post published a hidden advertisement for the Wagner PMC. The media published an article with the headline "Wagner PMC is the best solution to solve security crisis in Nigeria." The expert was Issa Diawara, a Malian. He calls himself a general and geopolitical analyst. Diawara also praises Russia and Sadio Camara, a senior official of the Malian junta who studied at a Moscow military school.

Activities: There is currently no accurate data on the presence of Wagner troops in Nigeria, but the country may be next. Previously, Prigozhin's Internet Research Agency used Nigeria to spread disinformation during the 2016 US elections. In 2022, the accounts of Nigerian influencers were hacked and used to spread propaganda: the war is not against Ukrainians but against NATO, and in general, Putin is defending his borders, and all oppressed countries should support Russia.

PMC arrival year: probably 2023. The arrival of the Wagner Group in Burkina Faso is evidenced by US intelligence data that became public through a leak on Discord. At the end of 2022, Ghanaian President Nana Akufo-Addo reported the presence of PMCs, but the junta led by Ibrahim Traoré denied these statements. After that, Ghana and Burkina Faso reached an understanding and did not return to the topic.

Political circumstances of possible arrival: In 2022, Burkina Faso experienced two coups d'état, both driven by the need to fight Islamist terrorism more effectively. Groups affiliated with al-Qaeda and the Islamic State have been fighting against the state since 2015. France helped Burkina Faso fight against jihadists.

The second coup, which took place in September 2022 under the leadership of Traoré, was anti-French: there were attacks on the French embassy and cultural mission. In early 2023, Burkina Faso and France suspended defence cooperation. At the same time, a cartoon depicting cooperation between the Burkinabé army and the Wagner PMC was circulating online. It depicts the French military as zombies being shot at by an African soldier. He is unable to defeat France, so a Wagner soldier comes to his aid. Together they win. This is just one example of Russian disinformation in Burkina Faso.

The All Eyes on Wagner research group has shown that in 2022, Prigozhin's people conducted several waves of information operations in Burkina Faso, using Facebook, influencers, and artificial intelligence. Their reach amounted to 350,000 unique views, which is 15% of all social media users in Burkina Faso.

Activities: According to Ghanaian President Akufo-Addo, the Wagner Group has been granted a "mine in the south of Burkina Faso." There are gold deposits in the south of the country, near the border with Ghana. It is not known what the Wagner mercenaries are offering in exchange for the gold. According to the Washington Post, it is military assistance.

Current situation: William Linder, a former CIA officer and head of the 14 North Strategies consulting agency, claimed that as of April 2023, there could be up to 50 PMC fighters in Burkina Faso.

PMC arrival year: no later than 2019

Political circumstances of arrival: Russia is a traditional ally of Equatorial Guinea, writes Ana Lúcia Sá, an Africa researcher at the University of Lisbon. The country is ruled by the authoritarian regime of Teodoro Obiang. He has been ruling the country since 1979. In 2020, his son (and vice president) Teodoro Nguema visited Russia and said that military personnel from his country were being trained in Russia.

Activities: According to the South African Daily Maverick, there is a Russian intelligence base on the equatorial Guinean island of Bioko. The island has a 3000-metre-high mountain called Pico Basilé. Meanwhile, the West African coast is mostly lowland. Thanks to this, the Russians can conduct electronic reconnaissance from the island. As of 2019, about 200 Wagner soldiers were guarding the base.

Current situation: No information is available. Equatorial Guinea ranks 120th out of 180 countries in the media freedom ranking by Reporters Without Borders. This makes it difficult to obtain independent information about events in the country.

PMC arrival year: 2017

Political circumstances of arrival: The Central African Republic is one of the most undemocratic authoritarian countries in the world. According to The Economist, the situation with democracy is worse only in Afghanistan, Myanmar, and North Korea.

The civil war in this country has been going on with short breaks since 2003. It became most intense after 2012. The rebels managed to capture the capital, and their leader Michel Djotodia declared himself president. But the civil war did not end there. Djotodia, like most of the rebels, is a Muslim, so the non-Muslim population mobilised against them. To prevent an escalation, France intervened. Djotodia was forced to resign, and after a transitional period, presidential elections were held in 2016. Faustin-Archange Touadéra, a mathematics professor who promised to unite the country, won the elections. But it proved difficult to do so without a state apparatus.

That same year, France ended its operation in the CAR. Paris decided that it had achieved its goals: 1) to improve the humanitarian situation; 2) to disarm rebel groups; 3) to support the African Union peacekeeping mission at the initial stage. In the end, the French cannot stay in the CAR forever, both for image reasons (accusations of colonialism) and electoral reasons (criticism that the French government spends money on the CAR). However, according to Namie Di Razza, a researcher at the International Peace Institute, the reduction of the French presence has been going hand in hand with the renewed confrontation in the country.

The CAR army is exhausted by the constant war. As of 2016, it had about three T-55 tanks, according to the London-based think tank International Institute for Strategic Studies.

the institute wrote. So President Touadéra was looking for a source of his own security. And he found it — in Moscow. In 2017, he travelled to Russia, after which the Wagner troops went to the CAR.

Activities: It's easier to say what Wagner and other Prigozhin structures are not doing in CAR. They train the local military, protect the president, conduct information campaigns, and make films about themselves. Prigozhin's companies mine gold and export mahogany. Also:

In 2021, they even collected taxes instead of the state.

Current situation: at the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the number of militants in the country decreased, but it is unlikely that the troops have been significantly reduced. During the first half of 2023, the Wagner mercenaries took part in hostilities and expanded their economic activities in the country.

PMC arrival year: 2019

Political circumstances of arrival: In 2019, Mozambique held presidential elections. The day before, then-President Filipe Nyusi arrived in Moscow, allegedly to discuss bilateral relations. This was the first such visit in 20 years. He asked for help in the elections, and Prigozhin's Association for Free Studies and International Cooperation joined him in promoting him. He won the election.

Nyusi is the head of the social democratic Liberation Front of Mozambique. This political party received assistance from Moscow back in Soviet times. The KGB and the East German secret service trained thousands of Mozambican security forces after the FRELIMO came to power in 1975. East Germany provided arms and technical assistance to Mozambique until 1987.

Activities: Ahead of the elections, in September 2018, about 200 Wagner fighters arrived in the country, The Times reported. They were supposed to fight against local jihadists and train the Mozambican military. CNN, citing sources in Mozambique, claimed that Wagner troops suffered losses due to unpreparedness for jungle combat and poor relations with the local military.

Current situation: In 2020, Wagner military was replaced by a PMC from South Africa. It is currently unknown whether Russian fighters are present in Mozambique.

PMC arrival year: 2018

Political circumstances of arrival: In 2018, the country held presidential elections. Prior to the elections, two analysts associated with Prigozhin prepared a report on Madagascar's political history, social problems, and how to influence the upcoming elections. After that, he sent 18-20 political technologists to Madagascar to support 8 candidates, but none of them made it to the second round. The political technologists were guarded by PMC militants, the participants of the trip told investigative journalists from the Russian publication Project.

Despite his electoral defeat, Prigozhin benefited. His political technologists were helping then-President Hery Rajaonarimampianina. He repaid them prior to the elections: in August 2018, Ferrum Mining, a firm associated with Prigozhin, and the state-owned Madagascar company Kraoma formed a joint venture to extract chromium, local newspaper Malina reported.

Activities: Political technologists conducted sociological research, promoted anti-Western narratives, advertised candidates online, and attempted to set up a printing plant to print a newspaper. The military component was limited, as there are no armed conflicts in Madagascar.

Current situation: In February 2023, local security officials stated in a comment to the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime researchers that Wagner operatives were present on the island. They are looking for candidates to support in the November 2023 elections.

This list of countries is non-exhaustive. In a number of countries, such as Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Prigozhin's people were "election observers." The purpose of such operations is to legitimise fraudulent elections, enlist the support of autocrats and hinder the development of democracies.

On June 24, 2023, the owner of the Wagner PMC, Yevgeny Prigozhin, admitted to acting in Africa on the instructions of the Russian leadership. "When we were fighting in Africa, we were told we needed Africa. And then it was abandoned because all the money allocated for aid (referring to bilateral aid from Russia to African countries — ed.) was stolen," he said. This statement puts an end to the debate about the extent to which the presence of the Wagner troops was subordinated to Russia's foreign policy interests.

Why do we need to know this? Knowledge of the work of the Wagner Group in Africa is important for building relations between Kyiv and the countries of the African continent. Diplomacy, including public and civic diplomacy, cannot be solely based on appeals for support. Dialogue is only possible when both sides are interested.

In addition, it is not enough to pay attention to the colonial nature of Russian foreign policy. For example, the experience of West African countries shows that the emergence of Wagner soldiers is accompanied by anti-colonial and anti-French information campaigns. Russia is presented as an anti-colonial force that will help African countries to simultaneously free themselves from European domination and overcome internal problems.

In this, Prigozhin's information operators imitate Soviet propaganda. It tried to portray the Soviet world as one that did not contain inequality and, therefore, colonialism. In reality, it did not become an alternative to the colonial world but an alternative coloniser. This is still happening today. However, many Africans do not want to listen to Ukrainian statements about colonialism.

However, there are other topics that unite us — the crimes of Wagner's people. Ukrainians remember the video in which Russians cut off the head of a Ukrainian prisoner of war. There is currently no open information on who exactly did this: the Russian military, Wagner mercenaries, or other militants. One way or another, it was Russians. In March 2022, other Russians cut off the head of a Malian man, put it on his body, and took a photo of it. An investigation by All Eyes on Wagner suggests that Wagner's men were behind this.

For Wagner soldiers, beheadings are a common practice. In Syria, they killed a man who refused to serve the regime: they crushed his limbs, and cut off his head and hands. Impunity breeds impunity. The crimes of the Wagner Group unite Ukraine and a number of African countries. Once Wagner PMC is defeated in Ukraine, it will be easier to expel the company from African countries. This should be the main message in communication with these countries.