The Kakhovka Dam: Destruction, Displacement, Disinformation

«As the voice of the past, a fearsome rumble of the rapids appeared in the dusk over the Dnipro River. For many years it could not be heard here, this deep-seated rumble of the abyss, which contained something primordially bestial and murk». This is how Oles Honchar described the moments right after the retreating Soviets had blown up a section of the Dnipro Dam in 1941. 

82 years later, on the 6th of June, 2023, the Russian forces blew up a large portion of the Kakhovka Dam. They did so in the face of an inevitable Ukrainian counter-offensive. Some things do not change.

For instance, what does not change is the value the Kremlin attaches to an individual. For Moscow, humans are just another expandable resource as oil and gas. In 1941, local populations were not informed or evacuated prior to the explosion. The same was repeated once again in 2023. Russian propaganda and temporary occupation administrations found themselves in complete disarray in the early morning of June 6th. 

«Everything is still and peaceful here», said one collaborationist from Nova Kakhovka, a town right next to the dam. Or rather – what used to be the dam. For when he said this, a dam was no more. The Russian propaganda, unaware of what their compatriots have committed, subserviently republished this message only to write just the opposite after barely 30 minutes had passed. 

At the same time, a document now emerged showing that the Russians prepared evacuation from other territories of the left bank, presumably indicating a big retreat from the Kherson region. 

Now the aerial footage of a blown-up dam flushing water down the stream is available online. Wherever you are, you can follow it almost live. But you are not simply an observer. The act committed by the Russians will have real repercussions on you, starting now. Some of these constitute short-term shock waves, others are profound shifts. Let’s name a few. 

Starting with the basics, a dam holds water back. It controls at which speed water from the reservoir is let go. When the dam is gone, which is precisely the case here, the water from the dam floods the territories situated down the river’s stream. At the same time, as the uncontained water spreads, its level in the reservoir falls. Thus, the rivers that are connected with the reservoir drain. This is not an entirely new development. For months now, Russians have been discharging water through the dam, but blowing it produces effects of an incomparable scale. 

In the worst case scenario, according to calculations of Swedish hydrological engineering company Dämningsverket, dozens of settlements on the banks of the Dnipro River, Dnipro Gulf, Inhulets River, and a few smaller rivers will face partial flooding. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed these calculations by saying that around 80 settlements are threatened by partial flooding. This remark was made twice: first in October 2022, when intelligence about Russian plans emerged, and second in June 2023, when these plans were enacted. Furthermore, a unique natural object may be impacted – the desert area of Oleshky Sands which is situated on the left side of the Dnipro River. Although even under the most depressing scenario, the desert shall not be flooded, the neighboring areas will. It is hard to imagine how the fauna will react to this and how the Oleshky Sands will look after the flood stops spreading, with the new normal setting in.

On the flip side, according to preliminary calculations made by a doctor of geographical sciences from Kherson University, Ihor Pylypenko, roughly 400 thousand hectares of Ukrainian land will be left without irrigation. These territories are in hot steppe climate. In 2010-2019, an average hectare of such land produced 2-3 tonnes of wheat, which is equal to a global average. Up to 7 tonnes of corn can be harvested from one hectare in this area. In 2021, the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, the two most affected by the explosion, produced 7 446 450 tons of cereal and leguminous crops. To compare, that year, the cereal output of entire Algeria was two times smaller. The agriculture of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions has already been massively damaged by the full-scale invasion, temporary occupation, and extensive mining, but the destruction of the dam comes on top of it. 

The grain markets did not ask twice. Prices of wheat futures started to rise on the Chicago exchange. Although this rise and the prices are still nothing compared to what the Russian full-scale invasion has done previously to food prices, the prices may get higher once the buyers come up with a better understanding of what has happened.

For years the United Nations grappled with a challenge of forced displacement caused by climate change. The most attention has been paid to the issue of island states, which may completely disappear under the water due to the rising global sea level. Who could have thought that such instances of forced displacement would come from another: Russia literally flooding parts of other country. As Pylypenko has calculated, roughly 400-450 thousand people would lose stable access to water. Add to that those people who would lose their jobs once the agricultural production becomes impossible without usual irrigation. Most of these people are already on the move. Others, whose residences were not flooded, would wait for state and international organizations to build temporary water facilities for them. Whether they leave also depends on how quickly help arrives.

Throughout autumn and winter Russia hoped to cause a wave of migration from Ukraine to the EU by knocking out the Ukrainian electricity grid. This plan failed. Now the Kremlin is doing another round with a similar policy. The desired policy outcome is clear: having lost any hopes of occupying the right bank of the Dnipro, Russians decided to destroy it whatsoever by threatening the livelihoods of its residents. 

It is also important to note that until either the dam is rebuilt or new settlements and infrastructure are created, many people will not have where to return too. Therefore, unlike many Ukrainian migrants and refugees, these displaced people would stay elsewhere for long periods of time.

Rules are broken. Ukraine has learned this the hard way. Telling Russians that they have just violated international humanitarian law is preaching to deaf ears. But what matters is not a specific rule but the underlying principle. Namely, that we, human beings, collectively agree that causing unnecessary suffering to civilians in wartime shall not be seen as acceptable.

A specific rule may be honored in the courtroom. But do not fool yourselves with the thoughts that Russian security services will soon rise against Putin, stage a coup, and give him out to the international prosecutors. This has not happened over 16 months of the full-scale war, during which the Russian army was decimated, while the Kremlin has been humiliated too many times to keep track of. There is no specific reason why this should happen now.

But a specific principle may be remedied via indirect means. Ukrainian allies should react asymmetrically by strengthening Ukraine, weakening Russia, and alleviating the suffering of the most affected Ukrainians. It is up to you if you want to live in a world with principles or in a world of anxieties, where blowing up infrastructure is a tactic used both by terrorist groups and the states.

The temporary occupation administration of Crimea has already recognized that now the peninsula might face challenges with access to drinkable water. In the coming days, Russian informational operations will be largely based around this fact. They will try to argue that the Kremlin has nothing to do with the explosion because it would not shoot itself in the leg. Please see the introduction to this text: Russian authorities attach no particular value to the problems people may face in their everyday lives. Hundreds of thousands of Russians have returned home from Ukraine dead or injured, and this did not stop the invasion, not for a second. The question of access to water for Crimea seems to be a minor one in this comparison.

It may be assumed that Russians did not intend to destroy the entire dam and failed. Instead they intended to create a smaller hole to discharge some water and flood the positions of the Ukrainians troops. When the outcome of their actions became evident, the propagandists started to simultaneously disseminate two versions: “Ukraine intentionally blew the dam” and “Ukraine was shelling Nova Kakhovka, a stray missile fell and destroyed the previously damaged dam.”

This all resembles the MH17 shootdown. When the Russian forces mistakenly fired at a civilian airliner, first they celebrated a great military victory – yet another Ukrainian military transport destroyed. When the dust settled, all became too evident. They spent the next 9 years denying everything and spreading multiple bizarre narratives. The Russian footmen, the Russian overseers, and the Russian state, which transferred the weapon, were then found guilty. 

But be aware: the disinformation operations in the coming days will be massive.