Negotiations with Russia, a frozen frontline, and NATO troops in Ukraine: Can Trump implement his peace plan?
“I’m going to stop wars,” declared Donald Trump in November 2024 when announcing his victory in the U.S. presidential elections. This included the war Russia is waging against Ukraine. Trump’s team had been developing a plan to end the war since early 2024. In April, The Washington Post reported on the efforts to create such a plan, although Trump’s advisor Jason Miller denied its existence, calling it ‘fake’.
On January 20, Donald Trump will officially take office as the U.S. President. He is actively working on the idea of ending Russia’s war against Ukraine. Trump has already met with Volodymyr Zelenskyy and spoken with Vladimir Putin. He has chosen Keith Kellogg as his candidate to represent U.S. interests in Ukraine. Kellogg previously served as acting National Security Advisor during Trump’s first term.
Svidomi analysed the statements and vision of Donald Trump and his team regarding ending Russia’s war against Ukraine and whether this plan could be implemented.
What Donald Trump's peace plan entails
On September 27, 2024, Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met in New York. Zelenskyy presented his vision for ending Russia's war against Ukraine, commonly known as the ‘victory plan’.
I think we have a common vision that the war in Ukraine must be stopped and that Putin cannot win,
Zelenskyy said at a joint press conference with Trump after their meeting.
“We both want to see this end, and we both want to see a fair deal made,” he said. “This has to stop, and the president [Zelenskyy —ed.] wants it to stop, and I’m sure President Putin wants it to stop, and that’s a good combination,” Trump said after his meeting with Zelenskyy.
On November 5, 2024, Donald Trump won the U.S. presidential election, giving him the opportunity to attempt to end Russia’s war against Ukraine. Trump’s team has been working on their vision for how this war could be resolved for some time.
So, what is Donald Trump's peace plan for ending Russia's war in Ukraine?
In November 2024, Trump announced Keith Kellogg as his candidate for Special Envoy for Ukraine. Kellogg, who was part of Trump’s team during his first presidential term, has been working on a vision for ending the war.
CNN has published Kellogg's vision for resolving the conflict in Ukraine. His plan is to provide arms to Ukraine on the condition that it agrees to negotiate with Russia to end the war. The weapons supplied would be enough to ‘stop the advance of Russian forces’.
The frontline would be frozen, with a ‘demilitarised zone’ established in its place. If Russia agrees to this, sanctions against it will be eased. After a peace agreement is signed between the two countries, all sanctions against Russia will be fully lifted.
To ensure that Ukraine receives compensation from Russia for war damage, a portion of the proceeds from Russian energy exports would be allocated to Ukraine. The exact percentage remains unknown and subject to negotiation.
Ukraine would temporarily regain occupied territories in the east, south, and Crimea only through diplomatic means.
The demilitarised zone would be guarded by troops from other countries not directly involved in the war. Kellogg suggests that these could be NATO soldiers. However, whether U.S. troops would be part of this force remains unclear.
Ivan Stupak, an adviser to Ukraine's Verkhovna Rada committee on national security and defence and a former SSU officer, believes that even the first steps of the plan, such as a ‘ceasefire’, would be difficult to implement given the current situation on the frontline.
“Is it possible? Theoretically, yes, but a ceasefire is more likely to be gradual. Intense shelling would decrease, we'd see occasional artillery exchanges in certain areas of the front line, drone exchanges, but active hostilities would gradually come down to zero,” he explains, noting that the intensity and movement of the front line, as well as the presence of Russian troops, could complicate this aspect of the peace plan.
Trump's running mate, J.D. Vance, has also worked on a plan to end the war in Ukraine. As well as proposing a demilitarised zone along the current frontline, Vance suggested that Russia should keep temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory. Ukraine, in turn, would build fortified lines to protect itself from possible future Russian attacks. European countries would be responsible for ensuring Ukraine's and their own security rather than relying on the U.S.
The provision of additional weapons to Ukraine might face resistance in the U.S. Congress, now fully controlled by the Republican Party after the 2024 midterm elections. In 2023, the then-opposition Republican Party opposed aid to Ukraine, which delayed the adoption of the federal budget in the U.S.
Doug Klein, a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council, notes that while Trump's official plan to end the war in Ukraine has not been presented, certain actions can already be expected from both the incoming administration and the new Congress.
Several ideas that have been floated by incoming Trump officials such as Keith Kellogg suggest arming Ukraine if Russia refuses to negotiate. It's already a major point of discussion among experts in Washington that before negotiating, Trump needs to get more leverage over Russia and that weapons and sanctions are the way to get that leverage. If Trump calls for more authority to send weapons to Ukraine, the Republican-led Congress is highly likely to fulfil that request. Since the November election, Republicans in Congress have said they'll only take action on Ukraine if Trump wants it. Trump can also send additional weapons to Ukraine on day one of his administration if he chooses to, since the Biden administration is unlikely to make full use of the available Presidential Drawdown Authority by January 20,
he explains how Trump may approach actions to end Russia's war against Ukraine.
The Biden administration will not have time to use all the funds allocated for aid to Ukraine before the end of its term. Several billion dollars will remain under the authority of Donald Trump’s new administration, and he will decide how to utilise these funds and further assistance to Ukraine.
Will Ukraine be satisfied with military guarantees from the Trump administration?
“You could never have NATO involved with Ukraine,” Donald Trump declared during his press conference on January 7, 2025. He added that he understood Russia's position on Ukraine's NATO membership. Russia strongly opposes Ukraine's NATO membership, arguing that Ukraine should remain "neutral" and avoid any security alliances. Notably, Ukraine's NATO membership is a key point in the victory plan developed by the Ukrainian presidential administration.
Russia has repeatedly expressed its opposition to NATO enlargement and Ukraine's potential membership. While Russia did not react significantly to Sweden and Finland joining NATO, Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened Alliance members over military assistance to Ukraine.
At the NATO summit in Washington in the summer of 2024, Alliance members reassured Ukraine that it was ‘on track to join NATO’. However, the ideas embedded in Donald Trump's peace plan explicitly reject granting Ukraine NATO membership and suggest that Ukraine should abandon its aspirations to join the alliance altogether.
Of course, such a clause may not satisfy Ukraine, as President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has officially included NATO membership in his ‘victory plan’. Recognising this, the U.S. has included military assistance in Ukraine's plans. On July 13, 2024, Ukraine and the United States signed a bilateral security agreement. This agreement allows the signatories to ‘mutually decide to develop and implement additional appropriate defence and deterrent responses, including in the economic, military, and/or political realms’ in the event of aggression against Ukraine.
The agreement also covers defence and security cooperation, the expansion of defence industry cooperation and joint efforts to promote regional peace.
Doug Klein explains what bilateral security cooperation between Ukraine and the U.S., and possible security guarantees from President Trump's administration, might look like in practice.
“While Kellogg's proposed plan for how to start negotiations (though not on what the end result of those negotiations should be) does include the idea of pausing Ukraine's path to NATO—this suggestion is also echoed by Vice President-elect JD Vance—It's good that Ukraine and others are making clear that the most important bottom line is security guarantees, and making sure that NATO membership is still part of the discussion right now. Even without NATO membership, the U.S. and other allies could choose to provide security guarantees to Ukraine, and these guarantees could take a variety of forms. The U.S. has provided security guarantees to Israel and South Korea, for example. Israel is one model in which rather than directly committing U.S. troops to enforce a demilitarised zone, as in Korea, Washington instead provides significant military support so Israel can guarantee its own security. However, the U.S. is still willing to send troops if need be, as it did after the October 7 attacks when it deployed two carrier strike groups to deter an attack on Israel, as well as when it aided Israel in shooting down Iranian drones and missiles last year. In the case of Ukraine, another idea (including from Vance) is for European allies to send troops and to have the U.S. provide logistics and support while not putting its own troops at risk.”
Nevertheless, NATO remains a critical factor for both Ukraine and Russia. Ivan Stupak claims that Russia will continue to demand that Ukraine permanently renounce NATO membership and may even push for this to be enshrined in the Ukrainian constitution.
Russia is fighting for it. But no country can fully guarantee Ukraine's security. One president can be replaced by another tomorrow, and agreements can change. We have already seen the Budapest Memorandum. In my view, Ukraine's best guarantee lies in its own armed forces and military-industrial complex. Hosting various foreign companies — be they American, British, French or even Chinese — could also strengthen Ukraine. This applies not only to military industries but also to civilian ones. Militarily, if we produce our own missiles in significant quantities and decide how to use them independently, Russia would think a million times before attempting another offensive,
he stresses.
Will Russia accept Trump's peace plan?
Although Donald Trump has not yet presented his plan for ending Russia's war against Ukraine, the Kremlin has already rejected his ideas. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said that Russia was not satisfied with Trump's proposals, as mentioned in various statements and interviews.
"Of course, we are not satisfied with the proposals of representatives of the newly elected president's team to postpone Ukraine's NATO membership for 20 years or to send a peacekeeping contingent to Ukraine," Lavrov said. But he added that Russia was ‘ready for negotiations’.
As of January 2025, Russia is making advances on parts of the front in the Donetsk region. On January 7, Russian forces reached the administrative boundary of Toretsk. Their goal is to advance toward Kostiantynivka to cut off logistical supply routes for Ukrainian forces in the south of the Donetsk region.
Meanwhile, on January 5, 2025, Ukraine launched new tactical offensive operations towards Kursk. Since August 2024, Ukrainian forces have held parts of the Russian Kursk region. Despite repeated Russian attempts to push Ukrainian troops back into the Sumy region, these efforts have so far failed. Holding the Kursk region diverts Russian resources from expanding the front in the Sumy and northern Kharkiv regions.
The ongoing active war and shifts on the front line favour Russia and provide little incentive for the Kremlin to agree to negotiations, says Ivan Stupak.
“The Russian Federation is not interested in peace talks as long as it is advancing on the front line. On the other hand, Russia is facing economic difficulties, as even Russian economists admit. They fear that Russia could lose not only militarily but also socially and economically, as Germany did in World War I. So, the Kremlin is keeping a close eye on its economy by monitoring the ruble exchange rate, interest rates, and regional budget shortfalls. I believe Russia will continue its offensive but with constant attention to economic conditions. If the likelihood of an economic collapse increases, the Kremlin may pause and declare itself ready for peace talks,” he explains.
However, Donald Trump remains confident that he can start negotiations with Vladimir Putin to end the war or freeze the conflict. “There has to be a ceasefire and immediate negotiations to stop this madness,” Trump said in December 2024.
Donald Trump is convinced that he will be able to start negotiations with Vladimir Putin to end the war or freeze the conflict. In December 2024, Trump said that ‘there must be a ceasefire and immediate negotiations to stop this madness’.
“I know Vladimir well,” Trump said. “This is his time to act. China can help. The world is watching!”
Keith Kellogg believes Donald Trump could mediate negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. “You need a referee to kind of separate them. And I think President Donald J Trump can do that – he’s got a vision to do that,” he said.
Doug Klein also believes Trump is determined to end Russia's war on Ukraine and is optimistic about Trump's ability to negotiate with Putin.
“The Trump team is confident in their mandate to do what Biden could not or would not. I'm hopeful that Russia will continue making the mistake of spurning the Trump team, making it far more difficult for the U.S. to push for a bad deal that favours Russia and creates a weak and easily violable peace. It's important for Ukraine to continue showing the Trump team that Kyiv is a partner and an ally heading into these talks, and that Trump's hand will be stronger in seeking peace if he sees Ukraine as being "on his side.” In many ways, U.S. relations with Ukraine are resetting after the last four years, and we can't assume that facts which are obvious to us are necessarily understood by Trump and his team. There is real advocacy and education to be done here,” concludes Doug Klein.
Keith Kellogg has postponed his trip to Kyiv, which was initially planned before Trump's inauguration on January 20. In an interview with Fox News, Kellogg stated, ‘Donald Trump will find a solution to end the war within the first 100 days of his inauguration.’ However, Trump's team is still developing its peace plan, and results within the promised 24-hour timeframe seem unlikely.
